In the heart of the ever-shifting geopolitical terrain, on October 7th, the Israel-Palestine war resulted in the deaths of numerous civilians. Israel’s imposition of a comprehensive blockade on Gaza, which Human Rights Watch has denounced as “collective punishment” and a “war crime,” poses a significant threat to the lives of the 2.3 million Palestinians confined within the beleaguered area. Israeli forces are continuously targeting innocent Palestinians in all possible inhumane ways.
Russia, which has strong relations with Israel and engages in diplomatic discussions with Hamas without officially labeling it a terrorist organization, has responded to this extraordinary situation with caution and restraint. Moscow’s strategy in this conflict is centered on maintaining equilibrium and fostering amicable relations with all parties involved. President Putin’s government has criticized the use of violence by both Hamas and Israel and has attributed most of the responsibility to the United States’ destructive approach which had ignored the need for an independent Palestinian state.
Putin expressed his concerns over the significant rise in Israeli and Palestinian fatalities during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Moscow three days after Hamas’ attack. The Russian president seized the chance to reaffirm his government’s stance that establishing a Palestinian state is “essential” while simultaneously criticizing US policy and the UN role. He asserted that the U.S. has focused on providing economic “handouts” to the Palestinians while paying little regard to their fundamental challenges related to statehood, Putin described it as a manifestation of what he called an obvious failure of Washington’s peacemaking efforts.
On 13 October, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, urged for a “humanitarian ceasefire” and proposed a resolution to the UN Security Council. The resolution explicitly denounces all violence and conflicts targeted at people and any acts of terrorism. She also criticized the Western countries, accusing Washington of being accountable for the imminent conflict in the Middle East and criticizing Brussels for disregarding the Israeli air force’s assaults on civilian facilities in the Gaza Strip. The UN Security Council rejected the Russian-led draft resolution, with France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States all voting against it. Russia attributed it to the “selfish intention of the Western bloc.”
Russian officials are engaged in discussions with their counterparts from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Turkey regarding different aspects of this crisis. These discussions have included topics such as the potential hazards of the conflict spreading, efforts to reach a truce, and the difficult situation Palestinian refugees face. In essence, Russia’s objective is to establish stability in the Israel-Palestine region and avert any additional loss of life. Moscow desires the implementation of a ceasefire and is advocating for a UN Security Council resolution that would explicitly require the parties engaged in the conflict to comply. Russia has shown interest in volunteering to mediate between Israel and Hamas, utilizing its connections with both parties.
Moscow’s assertion that a two-state resolution is vital for addressing the conflict in Israel-Palestine aligns with the agreement among Arab states and the international community. Therefore, Russia aims to demonstrate its global integration and assert its significant diplomatic influence and power in the Middle East. Russia is attempting to attract the countries in the Global South by positioning itself as the antithesis of the United States. Additionally, it aims to strengthen its influence in the Middle East and the Global South by portraying itself as a supporter of the Palestinian cause
Moscow is concerned about the possibility of this crisis spreading to other states in the Middle East, such as Lebanon and Syria. In the event of a full-scale conflict between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, it is likely that a significant number of Hezbollah forces would have to withdraw from Syria and return to Lebanon. Given these conditions, the Assad regime’s grip on authority may be compromised due to the multitude of economic challenges and social unrest afflicting Syria. This implies that Russia would assume a larger responsibility in terms of supporting the Syrian regime. In the backdrop of the Ukraine war, Moscow does not desire such a burden.
Russia has demonstrated its ability to maintain strong relationships with both Israel and Iran consistently over the years. One may legitimately question the potential impact of a direct military conflict between Israel and Iran on Moscow’s ability to maintain positive relations with both Tel Aviv and Tehran. The Russians aim to avoid a scenario where they are forced to make a decision between their alliances with Israel and Iran.
In the event of a larger clash between Israel and Iran, Moscow would have to closely monitor the potential repercussions of such a situation on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Kremlin places great importance on peace and stability in the Gulf due to Russia’s reliance on its relationship with Riyadh through OPEC Plus for its energy policies, as well as the significant role of the UAE, in helping Russia withstand economic pressure from the West. The potential consequences of an open conflict between Israel and Iran on the security of GCC states are unpredictable and might be significant. Moscow cannot disregard these concerns.
Assessing the impact of the conflict in Israel-Palestine on Russia’s national interests is challenging. It is difficult to anticipate whether the awful violence in the Israel-Palestine war will, on balance, benefit or hinder Russia’s interests. However, Putin underscored that all efforts must be taken to swiftly terminate the war and pleaded with both the Israeli government and Hamas not to target civilians, warning that escalation would have serious implications. Questions regarding how the Hamas-Israel issue would affect Moscow and its foreign policy ambitions are tricky and will require more time to examine as the situation continuously evolves. Nevertheless, Moscow is ready to perform the role of mediator in the Middle East in an effort to find a long-term solution to the Palestinian cause.