ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth rate at 3.2 percent for fiscal year 2025, an increase from the 2.4 percent forecasted for fiscal year 2024.
In its latest report titled “World Economic Outlook (WEO): Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” released on Tuesday, the IMF adjusted its previous GDP growth estimate for 2025 from 3.5 percent, which was reported in July 2024.
The World Bank, meanwhile, has estimated Pakistan’s GDP growth at 2.8 percent for fiscal year 2025, the lowest in the region, compared to 2.5 percent in 2024. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also maintained its GDP growth projection for Pakistan at 2.8 percent.
The IMF has projected an inflation rate of 9.5 percent for 2025, down from 23.4 percent in 2024. Consumer prices are expected to rise to 10.6 percent by the end of 2025, a decline from 12.6 percent in 2024.
Pakistan’s current account balance is projected to worsen to negative 0.9 percent in 2025, compared to negative 0.2 percent in 2024. However, unemployment is expected to decrease to 7.5 percent in 2025, down from 8 percent in 2024.
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Globally, growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming, with projections at 3.2 percent for both 2024 and 2025. While upgrades for the United States offset downgrades in other advanced economies, disruptions in production, commodity shipping, conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather have negatively impacted the outlook for the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Conversely, emerging Asia is seeing positive revisions, driven by surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, fueled by significant investments in artificial intelligence.
The IMF’s latest forecast for global growth five years from now stands at a mediocre 3.1 percent, reflecting persistent structural challenges such as an aging population and weak productivity that continue to hinder growth potential in many economies.