1-CPPA-G’s CY2027 forecast assumes approximately 40.2 TWh of hydropower and 18.9 TWh of RLNG-based generation, together accounting for nearly 45% of projected annual electricity purchases. This concentration creates significant energy-security exposure. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with below-normal river flows, could simultaneously restrict LNG-fired generation and hydropower availability, creating severe electricity shortages. The consequences would be particularly serious during winter and evening peak hours, when solar generation is limited and electricity supply depends heavily on dispatchable resources.
2. Pakistan must therefore accelerate the deployment of solar PV supported by Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as a strategic energy-security priority. Solar generation can reduce imported-fuel consumption during daylight hours, while batteries can store surplus electricity for evening demand, provide rapid frequency response and improve grid flexibility. These investments can reduce exposure to international fuel-price shocks, ease peak-hour supply pressures and strengthen the utilisation of domestic renewable resources.
*3.* Solar PV and BESS cannot independently replace seasonal hydropower or sustain electricity supply through prolonged fuel disruptions without adequate storage duration and charging energy. Their effectiveness depends on coordinated investment in transmission infrastructure, dependable generation, system-strength support and integrated resource planning. Pakistan’s energy-security strategy must therefore shift from dependence on imported fuels toward a diversified, flexible and resilient electricity system capable of maintaining supply during simultaneous geopolitical and hydrological shocks.
Asim Riaz : The author is an expert on energy and currently working for APTMA as advisor on Energy