At 50 GW of installed capacity and an average yield of 3 kWh per kWp per day, Pakistan’s distributed solar fleet could generate about 54.8 TWh annually. If this output displaced gas-fired generation operating at a heat rate of 10,000 BTU/kWh, it would avoid roughly 548 million MMBtu of gas consumption, equivalent to about 171 standard LNG cargoes.
At a benchmark gas price of US$10/MMBtu, the gross fuel-import saving would approach US$5.5 billion per year, depending on actual generation, curtailment and the fuel displaced.
In the last 30 months, Pakistan has imported ~42 GW of solar modules, almost all from China.
That volume is larger than the entire installed solar capacity of many countries.
Recent spot prices reinforce the value of this hedge. Pakistan paid US$20.70/MMBtu for a PetroChina cargo delivered on 21–22 July 2026 and accepted a TotalEnergies cargo for 27–28 July at US$21.88/MMBtu, more than twice the US$10 benchmark.
Solar is therefore becoming Pakistan’s lowest-cost protection against global energy-price shocks. It reduces dependence on imported fuels, strengthens energy security and places sustained downward pressure on overall energy costs.
Asim Riaz: The writer is an ex-public sector policy-maker. Currently , he is energy advisor to APTMA. He can be reached at : asim78@gmail.com