ISLAMABAD. Wheat year is gone more than half now. It starts from March and ends in February every year. At the end of harvesting, federal government usually gets a clear picture from the provinces as to how much stocks are available to meet the demand for a certain wheat year. But this time, the statistics of the domestic commodity production seem fatally incorrect.
With no clear picture of stocks, the federal government is groping in the dark to assess true need and quantity to be imported to have sufficient stocks till February 2021.
After exercise of weeks, the federal government was informed by the concerned provincial departments in May/June this year that wheat demand and supply gap was around 1.5 million tons and if it imports the commodity equal to the differential it will help the provinces keep the flour prices at a reasonable level till next harvesting.
Keeping in mind these statistics, the federal government allowed the private sector to import the commodity in June last. Today when the private sector has booked around 0.7 million and its 0.2 million tons stocks have already landed in Karachi and being lifted for different parts of the country for consumption, the gap in demand and supply is still more than 1.5 million tons.
As a result of incorrect stocks position, even imported commodity has not so far helped the provincial governments to control the flour prices in the open market. Now, finally Punjab government blew the whistle by conveying the Centre in the last week meeting that it must move quickly to import 1.5 million tons wheat in addition to 0.7 million tons already booked by the private sector and 0.2 million tons by Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) to stop surge in the wheat flour prices.
Sources said after a detailed presentation of Chief Secretary Punjab, Jawad Rafiq, and a comprehensive review of the flour prices in the last week meeting, prime minister, Imran Khan, ordered import of 1.5 million tons wheat through public sector. However, Hafeez Shaikh, the advisor on Finance who was present in the meeting, tried to convince to the prime minister that import of one million tons commodity through public sector would be enough to plug in the demand and supply gap.
The sources said the prime minister turned down the argument of Hafeez Shaikh and again repeated his order to import 1.5 million tons of wheat through public sector without any delay.
The federal government had set a target of 27 million tons of wheat production for 2019-20. However, due to untimely rains wheat production reduced considerably. This damaged Pakistan’s grain and put its food security at risk. With less stocks in hand, in June this year Pakistan again turned to the global market in June 2020 for import of wheat.
Pakistan’s 220 million population requires around 22 million tons of wheat for a year. Punjab, which holds 63 percent of total population of the country, requires around 0.750 million tons wheat per month to cater its market need and by including total demand of the remaining provinces, AJK and Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan need around 1.5 million tons wheat per month.
As a result of less domestic production in last season, wheat flour prices are on the rise from middle of the harvesting season. A bag of 20 kg wheat flour, which was available to the end consumer for Rs 900 by March this year, is now being sold for Rs 1400 and in some area even at higher price. This trend is hitting the pro poor hard. Prime minister, Imran Khan, himself is seriously concerned over rising flour prices and want to have an efficient price control mechanism and sufficient supply to ensure its stocks availability at reasonable price.
