ISLAMABAD: AJK Seats 33, Refugees Seats outside Kashmir 12=45.
AJK (33): PTI-16; PPP-11; PML-N-5=Opposition coming: 16.
Refugees Seats(12): PTI-9; PPP-1; PMLN-2; Opposition coming: 3
Total: PTI-25; PPP-12; PMLN-6=18
MC-1; JKPP-1.
PTI Victory: Traditional Federal influence and Imran Khan factor plus defections from opposition ranks.
PPP: Won on its own, Bilawal-Aseefa factor- could have won three more seats.
PML-N: lost due to Incumbency factor, despite Maryam Nawaz’s Marvellous campaign, could have won more Refugees seats.
Difference: overall PTI won with a narrow majority of three seats, but in AJK PPP+PMLN won equal seats 16 as of PTI 16 seats.
Army kept out of electoral process— no macro rigging:
Election campaign- worst and most abusive in AJK history. All three parties alleged rigging; accused each other of betraying Kashmir cause; blamed on another of India’s agent. Two local parties reduced to two seats.
Main reason behind victory of PTI: Federal control, AJK colonial dependence on Islamabad and PMLN incumbency in AJK.
Significant New development: Propose by PM Imran Khan: first Referendum for both sides of Occupied Kashmirs to choose accession to either India or Pakistan- a non-starter—; Second Referendum in AJK for accession to Pakistan or Independence (A probable path towards provisionally integrating AJK as a province of Pakistan— a great improvement from current colonised status with municipal status, but making occupation of former princely state by India and Pakistan a fait accompli.)
