Islamabad : Pakistan confirmed only 2.68 % GDP growth rate against its target of 3.56 % in the outgoing fiscal (2024-25). Finance minister , Mohammad Aurangzeb , released Pakistan Economic Survey here at a crowded press conference on Monday. He urged that Pakistan Economic Survey be seen in the global context . He time and again claimed in the press conference that Pakistan’s economy was heading to the right direction.
He said industrial sector posted a growth of 4.77 percent. Manufacturing growth was also positive despite a
slow recovery in large-scale manufacturing, supported by gains in small-scale manufacturing
and slaughtering. The services sector (58.4% of GDP) emerged as the main growth driver, expanding by 2.91 percent, while the agriculture
sector recorded a growth of 0.56 percent due to a decline in major crops.
The GDP, valued at current market prices, reached Rs 114,692 billion (US$ 411 billion), showing a 9.1 percent increase from the previous
year’s Rs 105,143 billion (US$ 372 billion). The economy experienced price stability, with GDP deflator growth recorded at 4.0 percent, the
lowest level since FY 2018, which has helped stabilizing the exchange rate. Thus, with improved economic activity, per capita income rose to US$ 1,824 from US$ 1,662 in the previous year.
The investment-to-GDP ratio improved to 13.8 percent, compared to 13.1 percent in FY 2024, supported by stronger public and private capital formation. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) stood at Rs 13,814.7 billion, marking a 15.0 percent increase over FY 2024. Private
investment grew by 9.9 percent, while public investment, including general government development spending, rose sharply by 34.2 percent. National saving also improved, recorded at 14.1 percent of GDP, reflecting stronger domestic resource mobilization.
Agriculture: The agriculture sector in Pakistan plays an essential and sustainable role in ensuring food security, supporting rural livelihoods, and fostering national economic
resilience. In FY 2025, the sector accounted for 23.54 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and employed over 37 percent of the labor force, underscoring its structural significance within the
economy.
Despite challenging climatic conditions, the agricultural sector demonstrated a positive growth rate of 0.56 percent, highlighting its inherent resilience and adherence to historical trends. Livestock emerged as the primary
contributor, achieving an expansion of 4.72 percent, reinforcing its significant role in agricultural value addition. This sector has consistently played a crucial role in supporting
household incomes and ensuring the national food supply. Similarly, the fisheries and forestry sub-sectors exhibited steady growth rates of 1.42
percent and 3.03 percent, respectively, bolstered by favorable policy measures and prevailing market dynamics.
The crops sub-sector experienced a contraction of 6.82 percent, primarily driven by a 13.49 percent decline in key crops and a 19.03 percent decrease in cotton ginning. These downturns can
be attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced sowing areas. Nevertheless, a growth of 4.78 percent in other crops indicates the potential
for crop diversification and demonstrates resilience in the face of challenging circumstances. Recent developments in crop production have
presented contrasting trends across various commodities. Notably, wheat production experienced a decline of 8.9 percent, attributable to a reduction in cultivated area and adverse climatic conditions. Conversely, while rice
exhibited an increase in acreage, it nonetheless encountered a minor dip in production of 1.38 percent. Other crops, including cotton (-30.7%), sugarcane (-3.88%), and maize (-15.4%), faced
considerable challenges due to decreased
planting area, delayed sowing, and extreme weather patterns. On a more positive note, vegetable categories such as onion and potato reported substantial output growth, with increases of 15.9 percent and 11.5 percent,
respectively.
The livestock and poultry sectors have continued serving as fundamental economic growth pillars.
Livestock has significantly contributed 14.97 percent to the GDP and accounts for 63.6 percent of the value added in agriculture. This growth has
been supported by increased production of milk and meat, herd expansion, and a 4.72 percent rise in value addition. The poultry sector also demonstrated a robust trajectory, exhibiting a 9.4
percent increase in meat production and a surge in egg output to 26.7 billion. This reinforces its critical role in enhancing food security and generating employment opportunities within the
agricultural domain.
The agriculture sector in Pakistan has made advancements in essential farm inputs and modernization initiatives. The availability of fertilizers remained relatively sta despite prevailing economic constraints. Conversely,
access to certified seeds has met over 34.3 percent of thenationalrequirements. Tax incentives and collaborative initiatives between the public and private sectors bolstered efforts to
enhance mechanization. However, there was a decline in tractor production attributable to macroeconomic factors. Water resource management continues to be a priority, with substantial investments dedicated to major dam
projects, including the Diamer-Basha and
Mohmand Dams, in accordance with the National Water Policy.
Agricultural credit disbursement reached Rs 1,880.4 billion during the first nine months of the FY 2025, representing a 15.0 percent increase compared to the previous year. This performance underscores a robust institutional commitment, expanded outreach, and enhanced support for both smallholder and commercial farmers.
The government has prioritized value-added production, modernization, climate resilience, and integrated policy initiatives through investments made under the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). Nevertheless, addressing persistent structural constraints, enhancing the dissemination of knowledge, and
investing in climate-smart technologies remain crucial for unlocking the sector’s full potential.
In summary, the FY 2025 presented landscape characterized by diverse trends, yet demonstrated significant resilience within the agricultural sector. With strategic policy support
and sustained investments, this sector is anticipated to substantially contribute to economic development, enhance rural incomes, and strengthen food security. Manufacturing and Mining: During July-March FY 2025, Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) experienced a contraction of 1.47 percent, in
contrast to a slight decline of 0.22 percent observed in the corresponding period of the previous year. This marks the third consecutive year of negative growth in LSM, which can be attributed to ongoing structural challenges,
elevated input costs, and downturns in critical sectors such as Food, Chemicals, Iron & Steel,
and Electrical Equipment. Despite the overall lackluster performance, it is noteworthy that nearly half of the LSM sectors demonstrated positive growth, including significant industries
such as Wearing Apparel, Textiles, Coke & Petroleum Products, Pharmaceuticals, and Automobiles.
In March 2025, the growth of LSM registered a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 1.8 percent, in contrast to a growth rate of 1.7 percent during the
same month in the previous year. Furthermore, on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, LSM experienced a decline of 4.6 percent in March-May 2024-25.
